The New Agricultural Route: How U.S.–China Trade Tensions Reopen Space for Brazil

Recent tariff increases imposed by China on agricultural imports from the United States have reopened a familiar geopolitical path: the redirection of Chinese demand toward Brazil. With import duties on U.S. products such as soybeans, corn, wheat, and meat rising between 10% and 15%, China is expected to intensify its trade partnerships with alternative suppliers — and Brazil once again stands out as a strategic option.

Already the world’s leading exporter of soy, cotton, beef, and poultry, Brazil is well positioned to absorb part of the demand previously met by American producers. Similar trends occurred during the first wave of trade tensions in 2018–2019, when Brazilian exports to China surged, particularly in soy.

Major Brazilian agribusiness companies, such as SLC Agrícola and BrasilAgro, are poised to benefit from this shift. Increased demand could drive export growth and strengthen Brazil’s trade balance. However, this scenario is not without domestic challenges.

A sharp rise in exports may reduce local supply, contributing to food inflation. In 2024, the food and beverage segment in Brazil recorded a price increase of approximately 8%, according to IBGE. Additional pressure could come from rising input costs in livestock production, affecting companies like JBS and BRF, which rely heavily on grains for animal feed.

For the Brazilian government, the situation presents a dual mandate: leverage the international opportunity while protecting domestic purchasing power. Strategic coordination between producers, industry stakeholders, and public institutions will be essential to balance export expansion with internal market stability.

In summary, escalating trade tensions between the United States and China may open a new window of opportunity for Brazilian agribusiness. Yet, realizing the full potential of this moment will require not only international readiness, but also firm domestic management.